The expected range falls within 90-95% of LPA. In its earlier outlook issued in January 2026, the agency had assessed the monsoon to be subpar and has retained the same projection.

According to Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet Weather, "After a year and a half of La Nina conditions, the Pacific Ocean has turned favourable for ENSO-neutral (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). Equatorial Pacific ocean-atmosphere coupling is now stronger than before. El Niño is expected during the early phase of the southwest Monsoon and will keep growing stronger till fall of the year. El Niño return may presage a weaker Monsoon. The second half of the season is likely to be more erratic and irregular".

Besides ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also influences monsoon circulation. A strong positive IOD event during the season has the potential to partially offset the impact of El Niño. The IOD is expected to remain neutral or slightly positive, which may support a favourable start to the monsoon. However, the likelihood of the monsoon being affected during the second half of the season remains. Seasonal rainfall distribution may remain uneven.

Geographically, the core monsoon rainfed regions of central and western India are expected to receive inadequate rainfall. Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan are likely to witness below-normal rainfall, particularly during August and September. Eastern and northeastern regions are expected to perform better compared to the rest of the country

*The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an irregular oscillation of sea surface temperatures in which the western Indian Ocean becomes alternately warmer (positive phase) and then colder (negative phase) than the eastern part of the ocean.

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