IMAGE: Prime Minister Narendra Modi receives a memento during an election meeting in Thiruvalla, Pathanamthitta, April 4, 2026. Photograph: Narendra Modi Photo Gallery/ANI Photo

Key Points

• 'The reason why the Muslims have consolidated themselves behind the Congress is because the CPI-M has been making strategic errors in their relationship with the Muslim community.'
• 'The Christians are also more or less with the UDF.'
• 'The total focus of the CPI-M is on Pinarayi Vijayan which is alienating a large number of Malayalis.'
• 'Politics of communalism is a universal phenomenon in Kerala, and not confined to the BJP alone.'
• 'If you go for a north Indian kind of violent politics, it will not be accepted here. Rather, it will be counter-productive.'

140 seats in the Kerala state assembly.

71 seats to be won to get the majority.

In the 2021 assembly election, the Left Democratic Front created history by coming back to power for a second term. A ruling party coming back to power had never happened in the history of Kerala till then. The state had always been rotating between the UDF (United Democratic Front) and the LDF.

The LDF won a record 99 seats and Pinarayi Vijayan became the chief minister of Kerala the second time.

In 2026, the fight is not between the UDF and the LDF alone. The Bharatiya Janata Party led National Democratic Alliance is giving a strong fight to the LDF and UDF.

Will the 2026 election spring a surprise? Or will it be on expected lines with the UDF coming to power?

N P Chekkutty worked with Desabhimani, the Indian Express and Kairali TV before becoming the executive editor of the now defunct newspaper Tejas. He is a much sought after political pundit in Kerala.

"Trivandrum is the place where the upper middle-class sections of society are concentrated. You have the cream of Kerala society there. And that society is slowly shifting its loyalty to the BJP is a clear pointer towards what can happen in the other parts too," Mr. Chekkutty tells Rediff's Shobha Warrier in the concluding segment of a two-part interview:

• Part 1 of the Interview: Kerala Elections: 'Some CPM Leaders Are Islamophobic'

Where do the minorities in Kerala stand? Do the Christians and Muslims support the UDF?

In Kerala, generally speaking, Muslims and Christians have always been part of mainstream politics.

The Muslims constitute almost 27% of the population, and there is a consolidation of Muslims behind the UDF.

The Muslim League is the main political party of the Muslims and it is a major constituent of the UDF.

Now the Welfare Party has declared its support to the UDF.

If you look at the local body election and the Lok Sabha election, Muslims have voted for the UDF.

We have been seeing this phenomenon from 2019 onwards. That was when the Muslims started consolidating in favour of the UDF.

Narendra Modi came to power in 2014. In 2019, they realised that they have to be behind the Congress, the main Opposition party that speaks against the Sangh Parivar in Parliament.

That was when they lost faith in the Left forces. Till then, many Muslim organisations were behind the LDF.

The reason why the Muslims have consolidated themselves behind the Congress now is because the CPI-M has been making strategic errors in their relationship with the Muslim community by following a pro-Hindu kind of politics often.

With the intention of getting the Hindu community back in their fold?

That was what they tried to do but they didn't get it because the RSS-Sangh Parivar votes have consolidated, and the CPI-M could not win them back. The number of people who went to the RSS is still with them.

But the strategy alienated the Muslims in a big way.

It was a serious mistake on the part of the CPI-M.

IMAGE: Congress leader Rahul Gandhi campaigns in Alappuzha for the Kerala assembly elections, April 4, 2026. Photograph: Kind courtesy K C Venugopal/X

What about the Christian votes? The Christian community form around 19% of the population in Kerala. Are they behind the UDF?

Yes, there is a consolidation of Christian votes in favour of the UDF.

The recent Manorama survey found that almost all the seats in Ernakulam would go to the UDF. It is a very strong Christian belt.

The survey also found that Kottayam and Idukki -- again a very strong Christian belt -- would go to the UDF.

We see that Idukki is 100% behind the UDF. Kottayam where the Kerala Congress Mani group was strong is losing ground. It left the UDF to be with the LDF.

This shows the Christians are also more or less with the UDF.

They have realised that the CPI-M may not be able to give proper support when the Left has no real clout throughout India.

Within the Communist party, many people are unhappy with the present situation.

It has become a Pinarayi Vijayan oriented party. The total focus of the party is on Pinarayi Vijayan which is alienating a large number of Malayalis. The Communist party was never a personality-oriented party.

It was once believed that the BJP would never be able to get a foothold in Kerala as it is perceived as a communal party. But it is getting stronger and stronger in the state...

What the people of Kerala feel is you brand the BJP as a communal party but look at other political parties, they are also not secular.

Take the CPI-M which is a secular party. But many of their leaders are taking the same stand as the RSS-Sangh Parivar.

So, people feel that those who follow the holier-than-thou kind of politics also are in the same boat.

Naturally people feel why do you project only the BJP as a communal party when others are also playing the politics of communalism?

Politics of communalism is a universal phenomenon in Kerala, and not confined to the BJP alone.

Unfortunately, most parties have become tolerant to communal violence, thus eroding the credibility of most of the mainstream political parties.

People find not much difference between them and the BJP. That's why the BJP is getting stronger in Kerala.

IMAGE: BJP supporters during the Nitin Nabin roadshow in Attingal. Photograph: @NitinNabin X/ANI Photo

How important was it for the BJP to capture the Trivandrum corporation? Narendra Modi described it as just the beginning.

Yes, it was very important. Trivandrum is the capital city, and the CPI-M has been running the corporation for decades. So, capturing the corporation was very important.

Trivandrum is the place where the upper middle-class sections of society are concentrated. You have the cream of Kerala society there. And that society is slowly shifting its loyalty to the BJP is a clear pointer towards what can happen in the other parts too.

The BJP was anathema in the past. Not anymore.

People now accept the BJP as a mainstream contender for power.

Another thing you have to notice is when Narendra Modi was here, he spoke only about development and what the BJP wanted to do in Kerala. That kind of sober rhetoric or argument is acceptable to the people here.

If you go for a north Indian kind of violent politics, it will not be accepted here. Rather, it will be counter-productive.

Kerala is a society where Muslims and Christians are powerful economically and socially too.

Do you think it is advantage UDF this time?

Yes. I have been travelling to many places in Kerala and talking to people.

I see that there are a number of factors in favour of the UDF.

One, generally speaking, people are not very happy with the second term of the LDF.

Two, the UDF has been able to make its house in order. In 2021, there was a lot of internal differences within the Congress. The LDF came to power mainly because these people were fighting among themselves.

That situation has changed. Look at what happened to K Sudhakaran (the Kannur MP wanted to contest the assembly election). He made an attempt with that kind of politics but he was cut down to size. He had to accept that there was a high command now. That control is now coming back to the Congress.

IMAGE: N P Chekkutty

Who will you give the credit if the house is in order now?

I will say when V D Satheesan came in as a leader, he has brought in a different kind of political equation within the UDF. He calls it Team UDF.

In my mind, he is a highly promising politician with a sober, refined, mature attitude and a no-nonsense approach. Kerala badly needs this kind of a politician.

I feel Satheesan will emerge as the real leader for the UDF in the coming days.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff