IMAGE: Prime Minister Narendra Modi being felicitated during an election meeting in Thiruvalla, Pathanamthitta, April 4, 2026. Photograph: Narendra Modi Photo Gallery/ANI Photo

Key Points

• 'Many CPI-M leaders and cadres have either migrated to the Congress or BJP. Similarly, we see some leaders from the Congress going to the BJP.'
• 'The Congress and the Left are not ideological parties anymore. They have lost their ideology. They only vie for power.'
• 'The youth is interested only in development, and the kind of development that interest them is infrastructure development, fat salary, big jobs, etc.'

On the 9th of April, voters in Kerala decided who will rule the state for the next five years.

Will the Congress-led United Democratic Front make a comeback as political surveys say?

Or will the Communist Party of India-Marxist Left Democratic Front get another chance?

And how many seats will the Bharatiya Janata Party win this time?

For the first time, it is not going to be a fight between two fronts. There is a third front, the National Democratic Alliance fighting for a place in Kerala's political space.

"There is no doubt about the fact that the BJP has established itself as a player in Kerala. That will be further strengthened in 2026," Dr J Prabhash, retired professor of political science and former pro vice-chancellor at the University of Kerala, tells Rediff's Shobha Warrier.

• Part I: Kerala Elections: 'UDF Has An Edge Over LDF'

How do you explain the rise of the BJP in Kerala? Once upon a time, it was said that the BJP was a communal party and it would never appeal to the people of Kerala, but they have made their presence felt in the extreme southern and northern parts of Kerala.

You have to look at the rise of the BJP in Kerala from different angles.

One is that the Congress and the Left are not ideological parties anymore. They have lost their ideology. They only vie for power. Earlier, the Left followed a different ideology, and its policies also were different.

So, they have lost not just in terms of ideology, they have lost in terms of economic policy also. In fact, there is not much difference between the Congress, the CPI-M and the BJP as far as economic policies are concerned. And nobody is bothered about ideology.

Number two reason is the kind of cross-flooring that is taking place in Kerala. Many top leaders move between parties and among parties. Many CPI-M leaders and cadres have either migrated to the Congress or the BJP. Similarly, we see some leaders from the Congress going to the BJP.

It means parties have lost their distinctiveness in terms of ideology, policies and cadres.

The CPI-M today is CPI-M cum BJP cum Congress. The Congress today is BJP cum CPI-M cum Congress. The BJP today is BJP cum Congress cum CPI-M.

This was very rare earlier. Not anymore.

When there is an intermixing of cadres, and when there is not much ideological and economic policy difference between parties, they lose their ideological texture, policy texture and cadre texture.

Naturally people feel there is not much difference between them. They see every party as a hybrid party, and they will lose faith in the parties. Because of all these factors, civil society has lost faith in all the political parties.

So, their thought is, why should they consider the BJP as untouchable? They feel a vote for the BJP is not dangerous. Anyway, party people are moving around.

But it is a different ball game for the youth. They are not bothered about the Left or Right ideology.

The influence of Narendra Modi is substantial among the youth of Kerala compared to the other leaders.

The youth is interested only in development, and the kind of development that interest them is infrastructure development, fat salary, big jobs, etc.

Secularism or social development or social justice is no longer part of development, according to them. They are concerned about material wellbeing and material welfare, and they believe that Narendra Modi is capable to giving them that kind of development. So, they don't have any ideological hesitation in voting for him.

What I find is that when the Left is losing its youth base, and the Congress has almost lost its youth base, the youth of Kerala believe in Narendra Modi.

IMAGE: Congress General Secretary and Wayanad MP Priyanka Gandhi addresses a meeting for the Keralam assembly elections at Padinjarathara in Kalpetta, Wayanad, April 7, 2026. Photograph: @INCIndia X/ANI Photo

Earlier you said, ideologically there is no difference between the Congress and the CPI-M and the BJP. The BJP follows a pro-Hindu or Hindutva politics. But 27% of the population in Kerala are Muslims and Christians constitute 19%.
Is it because of the presence of the BJP in the political space that a consolidation of the Muslims and Christians is happening in Kerala?

If the Muslims and Christians are consolidating behind the Congress, it is because they know that if the UDF does not come to power now, the Congress will be lost in Kerala. They cannot afford to face starvation of power for another five years.

Then, that power vacuum will be occupied by the BJP.

The second reason is a state where 50% of the population is minorities, and if the Congress is not able to win a third time, it means the Congress is finished not just in Kerala but in south India too.

It also means the opposition against the BJP at the national level also will be feeble. So, the minorities feel they have to consolidate and vote for the UDF this time.

I would go on to say that the consolidation is happening not as Muslims or Christians but as electorate because of the fear of a BJP takeover if the UDF lost this time.

Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan casts his vote at the RC Amala Basic UP school, April 9, 2026. Photograph: @pinarayivijayan/X

For the first time, it is not a bipolar contest in Kerala. There are three political fronts in the fray. How do you see the strengths and weaknesses of these three fronts?

You cannot say, three fronts. There are only two-and-a-half fronts!

The LDF and the UDF are two fully formed fronts.

But the third front, the NDA front, is yet to take a full shape because they don't have enough front partners and partners with enough strength in Kerala.

So, it is not a tripolar contest in the true sense.

There is no doubt that the BJP has established itself as a player in Kerala. That will be further strengthened in 2026.

The BJP will definitely increase its voting percentage to the vicinity of 20% and will get seats too. Though they had one seat in 2016, in 2021 they didn't win any seat. I think they may get 1 to 3 seats this time.

IMAGE: Senior Bharatiya Janata Party leader Amit A Shah during an election roadshow in Kozhikode, April 5, 2026. Photograph: @AmitShah X/ANI Photo

What about the Congress?

The problem with the Congress is that they don't have any cadres to work, particularly at the village level. They have only leaders. The party functionaries are almost defunct. They have been losing cadres progressively.

The Congress is a 100-year-old party. What happens to a human being happens to a political party also. Like human beings, political parties also have their old age.

Unless the party revives by connecting with the youth and society by bringing more and more fresh blood into the party, the party will grow old and die like human beings.

Because the Congress neglected party building, it lost grassroot level institutions. The party has become grass without roots!

Party building did not take place not only in Kerala but throughout India too.

It was a little bit different in Kerala as it was getting alterative terms to come to power. They were able to survive because of power.

To the question, why they were winning, it is because people of Kerala wanted a change and voted for them. There was no alternative available. The choice was either the UDF or the LDF.

When a different party comes up as a credible alternative, it will be a different scenario.

IMAGE: Dr J Prabhash

The Left?

The problem with the Left is that having been in power for ten years, people are tired of them. There is a fatigue seeing the same leader and the same style of functioning.

Comparatively, the youth votes are shifting to the BJP and not towards the Congress or the CPI-M.

Any new or young party will attract the youth than the old political establishments.

If the UDF comes to power, who do you think will become the chief minister?

It will be good for the Congress if V D Satheesan is the chief minister. He is comparatively younger (61) and can win another 2-3 elections. If they go for older leaders, they will be there for another election perhaps.

Also, he was able to take firm stands on certain issues, and that endured him to the public. So, in terms of public perception, Satheesan has a better following than the other leaders.

Whether they project him and make him the chief minister is a different story...

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff