What could the US target if Trump acts on threats and Iran's likely response? Explained
U S President Donald Trump has threatened to destroy Iran's power stations and bridges, but bombing electricity plants would likely spur a humanitarian crisis and fierce retaliation from Tehran. There has been a silver lining, though: Pakistan has proposed a two-week ceasefire and urged Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil and gas route, for the same period. The White House Press Secretary Karoline Levitt has said that Trump was aware of the proposal and "a response would come". Earlier, Trump had threatened that "a whole civilisation would die tonight, never to be brought back" in a Truth Social post. Many, including some of his staunchest supporters, criticised the US President, with apprehensions growing that he might end up nuking Iran. While the White House denied a nuclear attack, its "only the President knows the next US action in Iran" response did little to allay the fears. Even so, targeting the civilian infrastructure in Iran, Trump's original threat, is also quite damning. Here is a deep dive into what the US could target and what Iran could do in response. What could the US and Israel target in Iran after Donald Trump's deadline passes? Previous airstrikes from the United States and Israel during the more than five-week war have hit energy infrastructure such as gas production facilities or oil depots, as well as transport routes. But taking any of Iran's roughly 90 power plants offline would represent a major escalation with immediate consequences for civilians and the local economy. According to the Paris-based International Energy Agency, Iran's abundant gas reserves account for around 79 per cent of the country's electricity generation. Its power stations are clustered around the largest urban and industrial areas in the north, particularly around the capital, Tehran, as well as along the Gulf coast, which is close to the main gas reserves. The biggest plant is Damavand, which supplies the capital, followed by Shahid Salimi Neka in northern Mazandaran province, and the Shahid Rajaee plant in northern Qazvin province, according to Iranian power infrastructure group MAPNA. "It is important to point out that Iran was undergoing a very severe energy crisis prior to the start of the current war. Iran has chronic shortages in electricity, natural gas and refined oil products," Brenda Shaffer, an energy expert at the US Naval Postgraduate School, told AFP. Would targeting Iran's power plants help the US militarily? No, according to the Washington-based Atlantic Council think-tank. "The Iranian military has only limited ties with the national electricity system. Instead, like most militaries, the Iranian military primarily uses middle distillates, especially diesel and jet fuel," analysts Joseph Webster and Ginger Matchett wrote on Monday. Strikes would "harm Iran's critical infrastructure and civilian population, while doing little to harm the Islamic Republic's military capabilities," they added. UN rights chief Volker Turk on Tuesday decried the "incendiary rhetoric" in the Middle East war, warning that deliberate attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure were "a war crime". What sectors would be impacted by such attacks? Nishant Kumar, a Middle East energy expert at the Rystad Energy consultancy, told AFP an attack on a power station would destabilise the Iranian grid and lead to rolling localised blackouts. "Sectors such as steel, cement, petrochemicals, and automotive manufacturing cannot operate under unstable power conditions or rolling blackouts," he added. Backup power systems, such as diesel generators, would be critical for essential services like hospitals, but they must be regularly resupplied. "Banking and telecommunications are among the most vulnerable sectors. ATMs and bank branches generally have limited backup power, while mobile network towers rely on batteries that typically last only two-four hours," he added. Iran's power network is interconnected with those of its neighbours, such as Turkey and Armenia, but their capacity to supply additional energy is limited. What would be Iran's response? Despite its more limited military capabilities, Iran has sought to mirror US and Israeli attacks so far, seeking to match targets in Israel or the Gulf region with those hit inside the Islamic Republic. But Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned on Tuesday that its response could "go beyond the region" and would include infrastructure "to deprive the United States and its allies of oil and gas in the region for years". They also noted that Iran had "exercised great restraint for the sake of good neighbourliness", in a veiled threat to Gulf countries whose energy production facilities, pipelines and ports are crucial to the world economy. Iran's military has in the past also threatened the crucial water desalination infrastructure of its neighbours. According to a 2022 report from the French Institute of International Relations think tank, desalination plants provide 42 per cent of drinking water in the United Arab Emirates, 70 per cent in Saudi Arabia, 86 per cent in Oman and 90 per cent in Kuwait. In the event of escalation by the US and Israel, Iranian military officials have also indicated they would fully activate their Houthi allies in Yemen, who joined the war in a limited capacity in late March. The Houthis could begin disrupting shipping through the Red Sea, as they did during Israel's war on Gaza. They are also nearer and better placed than Iran to hit Saudi infrastructure and Western bases in the Gulf. Read more news like this on HindustanTimes.com
Hindustan Times
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